“If someone divides the party while knowing it will make it harder to win elections, reduce its electoral result, and increase Donald Tusk’s chances of remaining in power, then they also bear responsibility for that—regardless of who that person may be,” said Telewizja Republika president Tomasz Sakiewicz.
He was commenting on Thursday’s meeting between former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Law and Justice (PiS) leader Jarosław Kaczyński, which is expected to result in Morawiecki leaving the party. Sakiewicz stressed, however, that it remains “an entirely open question” whether both camps will ultimately run on the same electoral lists in the next parliamentary election. He also shared unofficial information about what he believes is the real source of the dispute within Poland’s largest opposition party.
Thursday marked the final deadline for PiS politicians to comply with the party’s ultimatum requiring members not to participate in political associations. On the same day, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński met with Mateusz Morawiecki, head of the Rozwój Plus association. According to Telewizja Republika, the former prime minister did not comply with the party leadership’s decision. Shortly after the meeting ended, Kaczyński convened an urgent gathering of party members loyal to him.
The issue remains open
Speaking on Telewizja Republika, Sakiewicz said he did not expect dramatic developments, although he acknowledged that “politics can always be surprising.” He argued that there are four possible levels of cooperation on Poland’s political scene.
“Being in the same party, being in the same parliamentary caucus, running on joint electoral lists for the Sejm and the Senate, or simply creating a joint list for the Senate. What is probably being decided today is the first level—remaining in the same party. Whether they will stay in the same parliamentary caucus, I don’t know. Perhaps that as well. But the remaining issues are absolutely open.”
“Whoever divides the party bears responsibility”
Sakiewicz noted that Poland’s D’Hondt electoral system “does not reward parties—it rewards electoral lists.”
“The effectiveness of the right in the election will depend on whether there are many lists or fewer. The fewer lists there are on the right, the more the D’Hondt system benefits the larger ones.”
“If someone divides the party while knowing it will make it harder to win elections, reduce its result, and increase Donald Tusk’s chances of staying in power, then they bear responsibility for that—regardless of who they are. Creating such a situation is itself a political risk.”
He added that PiS voters had cast their ballots for a single party and associated the politicians they elected with that party.
“If someone no longer wants to be in PiS or contributes to splitting the party, they take responsibility for disappointing those voters. Of course, there are also voters who may welcome what has happened, but I believe that group is relatively small.”
What is the dispute really about?
Sakiewicz also shared what he described as information obtained through unofficial conversations.
“The dispute is certainly about overall leadership. Mateusz Morawiecki undoubtedly wants to become the party’s leader and, sooner or later, the leader of the broader political camp. He is still relatively young. The group that built PiS around Jarosław Kaczyński—and Kaczyński himself—is getting older. I believe Jarosław Kaczyński intends to remain active in politics for some time and is still very capable, but Morawiecki is probably assuming that changes may come in one, two, three, or four years, and he wants to lead those changes.”
Sakiewicz continued:
“I think this is the key motivation. He does not accept the idea that someone else could be anointed as the party’s next leader, and he does not want to be subordinate to that person. So he prefers to build his own political formation now—one that could either take over that role itself or later become the centre around which part of the conservative and centrist electorate could rally.”
According to Sakiewicz, Morawiecki has virtually no chance of attracting voters from the Confederation party because “he is viewed very negatively there.” He added that this was one of the reasons Przemysław Czarnek had been pushed to the forefront—to prevent conservative voters from drifting toward Confederation.