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On November 10, 2023, Fitch Ratings upheld Poland’s credit rating at A-/F1 for long- and short-term foreign currency obligations, with a stable outlook. The Ministry of Finance highlights Fitch’s acknowledgment of Poland’s diversified economy, robust macroeconomic frameworks within the European Union, improving foreign trade balance, and lower public debt compared to similarly rated countries.
Fitch recognizes Poland’s strengths, including economic diversification and EU membership, but notes concerns about management indicators, income levels, and higher inflation volatility. Revised forecasts predict a 0.4% GDP growth in 2023, accelerating to 2.4% in 2024, aligning with EU trends. Demographic challenges persist but are partly offset by increasing productivity and capital growth.
The mid-term outlook envisions a favorable 3.2% GDP growth in 2025, driven by increased investment collaboration with neighboring countries and EU funds. Potential rating improvements hinge on fiscal consolidation, reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, and income convergence without macroeconomic imbalances.
Potential Risks
Possible downgrades depend on a rapid surge in public debt due to ineffective deficit reduction measures. Risks also include a significant drop in mid-term economic growth and sustained deterioration in the foreign trade balance.
Poland’s economic trajectory, as affirmed by Fitch, demonstrates a balance between strengths and challenges. Strategic fiscal policies, structural improvements, and collaborative investments may shape the nation’s credit rating in the coming years.