Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s cabinet would have to vacate their posts—at least according to the newest Opinia24 survey carried out for Radio Zet. One thing seems certain: power would pass to a Law and Justice–Confederation coalition.
Tusk’s government on the way out
Between 23 and 26 May, pollster Opinia24 asked Poles:
“If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, which electoral committee would you vote for?”
The answers again revealed a slide in support for Tusk’s camp:
| Party / Coalition | Support |
|---|---|
| Civic Coalition (KO) | 32 % |
| Law and Justice (PiS) | 30 % |
| Confederation | 16 % |
| Third Way (Polska 2050 + PSL) | 6 % |
| New Left | 6 % |
| Razem | 4 % |
| Other party | 1 % |
| Don’t know / hard to say | 5 % |
Seat projections
- Law and Justice: 182 seats
- Civic Coalition: 179 seats
- Confederation: 84 seats
- Left: 15 seats
- Third Way: 0 seats (below the 8 % coalition threshold)
- Razem: 0 seats (fell one percentage point short)
Together, the current governing partners—Civic Coalition and the Left—would command only 194 seats. By contrast, an oft-rumoured pact between PiS and Confederation would give Jarosław Kaczyński’s and Sławomir Mentzen’s groupings 266 seats, comfortably enough to form a majority government.